July 16th, 2026: Excessive Rainfall Threat in Southern Arizona
Overview Excessive rainfall with the potential for flash flooding is possible today due to a combination of synoptic scale ascent, high precipitable water, and weak steering flow. The large-scale pattern is characterized by a 500mb anticyclone ("monsoon high") centered well to the north of Arizona and an inverted trough/upper level low near El Paso. CAMs (Convective Allowing Models) continue to forecast numerous showers and thunderstorms across much of Southern Arizona today, but extensive cloud cover may inhibit sufficient instability across the region making today's forecast quite tricky. Current Conditions Visible satellite imagery shows widespread mid level clouds with embedded showers and isolated thunderstorms across much of Arizona this morning with some patchy pockets of clearing. Visible satellite imagery as of 9:10AM MST courtesy of the NWS. These mid level clouds and embedded convection is associated with weak synoptic scale ascent induced by an inverted tro...